For some the Telecommunication revolution was the best thing to happen.
It bridged the HUGE lurking gap in the Human Communication frontier giving way to the famous adage "World is a small place".
Like the Connectivity modes had evolved with air travel the IT advances have been path breaking.
But then Air travel itself had reached its Focal point.
Comparetively IT industry still matures every now and then and at a fairly acceptable rate.
Recent IT technical advances seem to be more in the Hardware space. Mainly phenomenal increases in storage capacity on NAND and other chips.
For the Telecom industry its bit hazy, it stands at the same cross road where the Airline industry is stuck.
3G technology which was hailed as the Next Revolution in Communications till date remains a aircraft trying make its maiden flight across the Pacific or Atlantic.
European Companies invested heavily in 3G little realising that the Market for 3G was simply not there.
Economy Riders in Technology advances:
As with any country Economy only blooms when political stability exists.
In case of Europe there was a decent lull in political instability. The third world was and is going through a rough patch in terms of Political Stability.
So in short Markets of such third world countries are what any banker would describe as "Volatile Markets".
Investing in a volatile market has its ups and downs. While you would need to keenly watch the progress.
There can be a total loss of Revenues and bad debts can occur within a span of days. China is one such market where volatility exists even though political stability persists.
[ Side note:) : Communist regimes never had it so good. It remains a mystery to the Americans and the World @ large. Militist regimes have never been this successful ]
The Chinese markets are mainly dependent on the variables in its Economy growth. They are Automobiles, Cosmetics, Housing & Entertainment. Some market research claims that
you can never gauge the average chinese pulse. The preferences keep changing with American and European style influences.
The Demand for such foreign products bring out cheaper imitations which satisy the market supply demands.
In India volatile markets are due to unrealistic investments across sectors.
Buying capacities vary cities and the densities of cities add to such varying buying models. The Real Indian market has shifted from the Rural india to the Urban india.
In india, Foreign Direct Investment fuels growth in some areas such as chemical industry,Pharma sector, IT industry etc.
The opportunities are seldom equal across sectors. The imbalance causes the markets to fluctuate between the stable variables and the unstable ones.
India is mainly in the Value bracket where most FDI create value by investing in research and developments which are a fraction of the cost of that in Developed countries. Where China is all about cheap imitation jewellery, India is more about the development of Value and sustaining the same.
What works in China though is state sponsored infrastructure investments. In India there are way too many riders for growth. While Chinese CEOs might be helped by Financial reforms, Indian CEOs need to wine and dine the political class to its sanity.
In such a volatile political environment many missed opportunities exist or perish.
Take the case of Start-ups. I have always read about Chinese and Israeli start-ups creating a stir.
In India this rarely happens !!!
Not surprising that India is a democracy and China and Israel are more Militist states.
So nurturing value and sustainance is an unheard of thingy in india. Its all about the next square meal in India. Myopic viewpoints of the political & bureaucracy cancel the Missed Calls which india receives in Innovation space.
So MNC job is any day stable because it can survive Market crash in India and US and elsewhere.
Innovation space hardly has any takers.
my oft-quoted line for Innovation
- "Innovation is a continous process....But then it has to start somewhere first ;-)"
Though similar initiatives like iPhone were undertaken at the Indian Institute of Science Bangalore. They never took off. Why and Wherefores are not hard to imagine.
Golden initiatives also need some brilliant intuitive Timing, Manufacturing and Magnitude adjustments. Where iPhones are such a Phenomenon across all Markets. Volatility factors in India are a severe hindrance to such Valued growth.
For Samsung itself the lull in the markets is a time for serious Introspection. Cutting Costs, Excess baggage, improving products should be done on a war footing if it has to survive in the FMCG space.
Chinese companies and Japanese companies are watching the Segments Samsung addresses. This time they are not going to produce cheap imitations. Their directed Research and Development revenues are controlled and monitored closely for Tangible output.
So Volatility of markets in India might be a boon for MNCs which can Funnel their growth via India in a cost effective and sustained way.
A peek into the future and weighted averages should help companies bring out Products and beat the Volatility in the Markets.
4G is supposed to be the next Big thing in the Telecom protocol arena.
Sadly the Technology is so complex and has so many private entities that standardising and commercialising it seem to be a 4 year curse at a minimum.
EndGame : Sometimes a bad taste (militist regimes) in the mouth may be a good thing after all.
Maybe sometimes democracy should take a back seat ???
Maybe my diagnosis may be wrong, what with India booming like anything. But then i am wishing India to be a Tech Super Power, a one-stop shop for any technical consulting.
Well there is no cure for my hypermetropia ;-)
~P
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